In the six Premier League games he's overseen Chelsea have averaged a non-penalty expected goals tally of 1. 06 per-90 - that's a disappointing return for a team that are being priced up as a top-four side and have had a soft run of games against the likes of Wolves, Aston Villa and Brentford. In comparison, Arsenal are working at a 1. 82 non-penalty expected goals average per-90 this season. That Chelsea average dropped to 0. 28 when facing Manchester United - a genuine top-six ranked team - where Jorginho's penalty came out of nothing during a very stale attacking performance. There have been moments of incisive play under Potter, who I'm sure will get it right once working out all the parts to this Chelsea machine. Yet, without the natural width and creativity of Reece James and industry of N'Golo Kante, Chelsea are looking a little lost in this transitional period. Smith: Goals will come for Jesus, no need to panicBut there are concerns for Arsenal's attack when playing away from home, too.
If you take Christian Eriksen out of the equation, their away form since promotion in the Premier League is horrendous. Stormzy launches Merky FC to fight racial inequality in footballWithout the Danish delight, now strutting his stuff at Manchester United, Brentford have played 20 away games, winning just twice and have conceded on average 2. 1 goals per 90 minutes in those matches. With him, they won four of their five road trips, including at Chelsea. This season they are winless from their six away days in relatively soft fixtures against Leicester, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Newcastle and Aston Villa - losing the aggregate score 15-6. And then you throw the suspension of Ivan Toney into the mix. He's their focal point, the one that releases the pressure on their defence and most importantly has been responsible for 40 per cent of their goal involvements (27 in 67) since promotion.
Aleksandar Mitrovic is in that bracket now, for me. Win £250, 000 with Super 6! And although Fulham's pathway to goal will be restricted, a player of his ruthless nature in front of goal - only Haaland has a better minutes to goal ratio than Mitrovic (113) this season of players to have scored five or more - has to be considered in the goalscorer markets. The 2/1 with Sky Bet makes appeal but we can do better.
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Everton have the fourth highest expected goals against this season (21. 2) but have the fourth actual best defensive record (conceded 12). That's an unsustainable metric. Rodgers on 'educated' Faes, his coaching evolution and transfer plansIs Pickford in the form of his life? I'm not sure you can allow the quality of Leicester's forward line such high probability chance creation without getting punished. So, it's time to roll out a staple bet at a price that remains chunky, with Barnes to score in a Leicester win at 7/1 with Sky Bet. And his 10/1 first goalscorer price should also be fully respected. No Leicester player has had more touches in the opposition box (46) than Barnes this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Aleksandar Mitrovic to score a header (8/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here! )Nottingham Forest vs Brentford, Saturday 3pmFetch me my wheelbarrow, put some money in it and go and back Nottingham Forest to win and under 2. 5 goals at 11/2 with Sky Bet. Obviously, market forces are worth respecting much of the time, but I'm really struggling to see why Brentford are priced up with a 40 per cent chance of victory (6/4 with Sky Bet).
Premier League fixtures | Live Premier League tableBet with Sky Bet | Download the Sky Sports AppThis is a fantastic opportunity for improving Nottingham Forest to grab maximum points in front of their own fans, who are going to prove invaluable this season. Ivan Toney will be a big miss for Brentford Since switching to a more rigid, defensive-focused philosophy after the hammering at Leicester, Steve Cooper's side are a backable prospect. Before the spanking at Arsenal, something excused for any team this season, Forest had conceded just two goals in their last four games.
Nottingham Forest v Brentford news - NewsNow Brighton vs Nottingham Forest: How to watch on TV live stream, team news, lineups & prediction Bellingham Herald 14:27 Mon, 17
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Leeds to thump sinking Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest to FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Leeds' win against Liverpool in the Premier League. Nottingham Forest vs Brentford, Saturday
The gameplan is clear from Brendan Rodgers to get his winger into dangerous positions in the box, and it's reaping the rewards with Barnes scoring three in his last six games helped by some wonderful chemistry with Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Harvey Barnes to score in a Leicester win (7/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here! )Chelsea vs Arsenal, Sunday 12pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE! Chelsea remain a team overperforming according to the underlying numbers under Graham Potter, especially in attack.
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Nottingham Forest - Brentford Live - Premier League: Football Scores & Highlights - 05/11/2022Follow the Premier League live Football match between Nottingham Forest and Brentford with Eurosport. The match starts at 15:00 on 5 November 2022. Catch the latest Nottingham Forest and Brentford news and find up to date Premier League standings, results, top scorers and previous winners. Football fans can read breaking Football news headlines, interviews, expert commentary and watch replays. Keep up with what’s happening in the Premier League, Champions League and other competitions.
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